Covid 19

jcb411abuser said:
Not everyone becomes sick from the flu virus or very infectious but that doesn't mean you didn't come into contact with it, this though is highly infectious and just like the flu most people will not know they've even had it.
China will get a second wave as soon as they relax the movement restrictions. We know this it's been the plan all along, and you've proven my point that the government are not conveying this to the public!
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Sure a couple of waves is better than 1 Tsunami
 
I've been keeping an eye on some stats over the last few days
It doesnt format well as a table here, but to my mind the number of cases is only of limited value when comparing countries as it is a function of people tested.

I've been looking at deaths per million instead. and the oft talked about Flu. The flu line is the 2018 US flu which the CDC estimate caused 61k deaths. The 2018 Flu season was quite bad and lasted 16 weeks. That's 16 weeks where "the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold" not 16 weeks from the first death.

So I don't know how many weeks you would say italy is in it yet? it will be 5 weeks on sunday since the first restrictions were introduced. Italy could overtake it by then.
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Country Population Deaths Deaths Per Million
CA 37.6 39 1.04
IE 4.8 19 3.96
US 327.2 1301 3.98
UK 66.4 578 8.70
IT 60.5 8215 135.79
Flu 327.2 61000 186.43
 
JohnBoy said:
I've been keeping an eye on some stats over the last few days
It doesnt format well as a table here, but to my mind the number of cases is only of limited value when comparing countries as it is a function of people tested.

I've been looking at deaths per million instead. and the oft talked about Flu. The flu line is the 2018 US flu which the CDC estimate caused 61k deaths. The 2018 Flu season was quite bad and lasted 16 weeks. That's 16 weeks where "the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold" not 16 weeks from the first death.

So I don't know how many weeks you would say italy is in it yet? it will be 5 weeks on sunday since the first restrictions were introduced. Italy could overtake it by then.
shocked.gif


Country Population Deaths Deaths Per Million
CA 37.6 39 1.04
IE 4.8 19 3.96
US 327.2 1301 3.98
UK 66.4 578 8.70
IT 60.5 8215 135.79
Flu 327.2 61000 186.43
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Are those deaths not over five weeks and growing and the flu was over 16 weeks and fading away with summer.
 
yeah that's exactly the point. By 5 weeks they'll have more deaths per million than a relatively bad 16 week flu season.
 
candor said:
I'm not sure what country you are living in or what news outlets you subscribe to but it's been made very clear by the government that the intention is to slow the spread of the virus so that the health system has the capacity to care for the critical and severe cases. The measures taken and the advice given is not about stopping it, as that is nigh on impossible.
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Thank you.

Not wanting to kill the conversation, but please can we just leave the strategy to the experts?

Experts can put a rocket in space, I find it interesting. A few have blown up but I’m not going to email NASA with directions as how they should fly one to Mars.

Because....... they know better. To think otherwise would be pure stupidity.
 
It looks like Ukraine and South Africa are the places to watch now. Both look set for a massive wave on infections, combine this with very poor health systems and lack of resources.
A huge number of Ukraine young people have returned from working in hotspots in Spain, Italy and Germany. The average age of cases there is very low at 40.
Meanwhile in South Africa
https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/new...kers-stranded-at-cape-town-taxi-rank-45642762
 
6600 said:
It looks like Ukraine and South Africa are the places to watch now. Both look set for a massive wave on infections, combine this with very poor health systems and lack of resources.
A huge number of Ukraine young people have returned from working in hotspots in Spain, Italy and Germany. The average age of cases there is very low at 40.
Meanwhile in South Africa
https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/new...kers-stranded-at-cape-town-taxi-rank-45642762
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Countries like South Africa are a real worry
 
Update.
Do not take mortality figures from France as being accurate. The figures being published are strictly for fatalities within hospitals. Fatalities in private homes, care homes, retirement homes, prisons etc etc are not counted...therefore the fatality figures do not even come close to the real figures.

This morning I secured a permit for myself and staff for multiple journeys etc to do with the everyday necessities of farming. Before this you had to get a permit for each individual journey/déplacement which in practical terms was unworkable. I’ve accumulated €1835 in fines so far...and each fine from now on will be €1500 because it’s second and subsequent, iykwim.
Mobile phone tracking is being used by Government. They estimate that between 17 and 28% of the population exited Paris and other cities for the countryside. This info from mobile phone géolocalisation.
Scary stuff.

Home isolation is being taken very seriously by both the Government and citizens. Herself was doing the weekly shop this morning and people were verbally accosting those that weren’t adhering to best practice.
 
Sheebadog said:
Update.
Do not take mortality figures from France as being accurate. The figures being published are strictly for fatalities within hospitals. Fatalities in private homes, care homes, retirement homes, prisons etc etc are not counted...therefore the fatality figures do not even come close to the real figures.

This morning I secured a permit for myself and staff for multiple journeys etc to do with the everyday necessities of farming. Before this you had to get a permit for each individual journey/déplacement which in practical terms was unworkable. I’ve accumulated €1835 in fines so far...and each fine from now on will be €1500 because it’s second and subsequent, iykwim.
Mobile phone tracking is being used by Government. They estimate that between 17 and 28% of the population exited Paris and other cities for the countryside. This info from mobile phone géolocalisation.
Scary stuff.

Home isolation is being taken very seriously by both the Government and citizens. Herself was doing the weekly shop this morning and people were verbally accosting those that weren’t adhering to best practice.
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Jesus, that's a police state you have there.
 
JohnBoy said:
Nope. The French police are a branch of the military. Its martial law every day in the land of the jambon
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Paris is one place I would rather not be. Seems to be on the brink of revolution ever since Little Napoleon came into power.
 
Agreed, it's never far from the surface in France. Petit Emmanuel only brought it a little bit closer.

I have to admit my sister is one of those that fled to the country. But has been super isolated since she arrived.
 
JohnBoy said:
Agreed, it's never far from the surface in France. Petit Emmanuel only brought it a little bit closer.

I have to admit my sister is one of those that fled to the country. But has been super isolated since she arrived.
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In the sunny southeast we have our own version. All the coastal shops are very busy with the holiday homes owners having moved in early. The roads are busy enough but I can't see the harm so long as people keep to themselves which they are to be fair.
 
Dunno how true it is but I heard parts of the west weren't best pleased when Dublin decamped there last weekend
 
6600 said:
Paris is one place I would rather not be. Seems to be on the brink of revolution ever since Little Napoleon came into power.
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Paris and France are only ever a hairs breadth away from anarchy.
The Gilet Jaunes are the only ones that are economically content with the lockdown...they get paid for not working.
 
JohnBoy said:
Agreed, it's never far from the surface in France. Petit Emmanuel only brought it a little bit closer.

I have to admit my sister is one of those that fled to the country. But has been super isolated since she arrived.
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Birds in Paris are said to be starved. Between Parisiens fleeing and the lockdown, there’s nobody feeding them.
 
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