Brexit

Discussion in 'Talking Point' started by Mike, Sep 26, 2018.

  1. BasilSeal

    BasilSeal Well-Known Member

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    Can you tell me which particular EU rules you're looking forward to no longer obeying once brexit happens?

    but anyway, don't you realise that if we want to sell so much as a pint of milk to the EU in future, then we'll have to abide by their rules in order to do so? if we leave without a deal, then the first thing we'll be doing on November the first is going to the EU to try and make a free trad deal with them, and any such deal will require some sort of concession and compromise from us. Unless you think we're going to simply stop trading with the EU completely, EU rules are always going to be relevant to us. and as you correctly point out, once we leave we'll have no say in them.

    Gosh, how selfish of me to not want a situation that trashes the business i've spent the last 30 years building and means that my partner could be left without access to life saving medicine.

    If you get the no deal outcome you're so keen on, you'll get used to hearing the phrase 'i told you so' .
     
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  2. recycled

    recycled Moderator

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    No market in the UK for organic produce then ? No where else but Europe make drugs ?
    I'm sure once the drug companies start losing out on a large market they'll not be long getting involved to change that .
    What about the people in the overpopulated parts of the country that cant even see a doc because they cant get appointments, stuff them although obviously I'm not allowed to say that because I'll get branded a far right extremist . What laws I'm I looking forward to not obeying, well none obviously but who knows what they could force in us that well have no say in , maybe well soon all be driving on the right side of the road who knows
     
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  3. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    @BasilSeal, at this stage you sound like King Canute trying to hold back the tide with a spoon. The people voted to leave, revoking Article 50 is not going to happen. In all likelihood the government that results whenever an election happens will be even more hardline. All that results from the events of the last week is to hogtie your government's negotiating position and if there is a deal it will be a bad one bad for your country, you will have no say in the EU but still unable to negotiate free trade agreements with non-EU countries and will still have to pay into the EU and be subject to ECJ rulings for 8 years.
    The whole remain side are being used by the institutions and people who benefit hugely from the EU with lucrative jobs and pensions, for them to vote to leave would be like barristers voting to end free legal aid, or indeed farmers to abolish the CAP.
    If you don't want to reply that's fine, but if you do please don't write an essay that adresses none of my points. Tell us what you think should happen at this stage, now an election has been blocked what on earth is going to happen in parliament at the end of October, this supposedly impartial guy is out of control?

     
  4. jay gatsby

    jay gatsby Well-Known Member

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    Jesus it's a circus in there. Bercow seems to have gone completely off the edge altogether. Its like a big game to him
     
  5. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    :ohmy::no:
     
  6. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    Key thing is he stays in the seat till 31/10, and the current parliament will nominate his successor, ensuring another remainer while using up valuable time in the last week of October.
     
  7. JohnBoy

    JohnBoy Well-Known Member

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    I dunno what I'm going to do when it's all over. it's been some great TV watching the madness of parliment.

    I think if the UK ever do actually get around to leaving that Bercrow's role will actually have been quite important. Nobody can say that Brexit didnt get the full scrutiny of the house of commons. I think it would be much more damaging to have just left in some sort of quick and easy manner. If all that can be talked has been talked before the departure then it makes that departure more solid. It is far better to drag out the departure by a year and have it done solidly than it is to have done it quickly and be contested after the fact.
     
  8. jay gatsby

    jay gatsby Well-Known Member

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    I realise that the game of politics is being played by both sides, it's the amateur theatrics that kill me, it reduces such serious matters to farce. UK politics is crying out for someone of real substance and character, if Labour had the right leader over the past few years they'd have taken parliament in a general election and averted Brexit by now.
     
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  9. stevieg

    stevieg Well-Known Member

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    Very true about labour leadership. The lack of opposition is partly to blame for this mess.
    Just look at the last time the tories were in government on their own.
    They were going from scandal to scandal like now. Blair won a landslide and the tories lost nearly 200 seats
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
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  10. CORK

    CORK Well-Known Member

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    To be fair to @BasilSeal , Brexit has not happened yet.

    There is certainly no guarantee that Brexit will happen either.

    In the meantime, he is merely arguing why Brexit should not happen and has every right to do so.

    Time will whether or not Brexit will happen.

    As we have seen ad nauseum - there are no guarantees when it comes to politics.
    In order to secure votes and more importantly to secure the future of a country, politicians will back peddle & laws will be changed.
     
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  11. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure he can speak for himself.
     
  12. BasilSeal

    BasilSeal Well-Known Member

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    Cnut didn't think he could hold back the tide, he stood on the shore and ordered the sea not to come in as a demonstration to his fawning courtiers that he was not all powerful.

    they voted to leave the political union, and they did so based on promises made by the leave campaign, here are some of those promises:



    Oddly enough, now they've got leave over the line, the goalposts have moved, and now only a no deal brexit is the real deal. When they've got that, no doubt they'll only be happy when the UK has been towed into the middle of the Atlantic.

    what deal do you think they were going to get? one where the EU undermine the integrity of their own single market and pretend that WTO rules don't apply to the UK? This is deluded fantasy, i very much doubt even boris himself thought it was possible, the no deal blustering was far more likely to be for the benefit of MPs, to get them to vote through some cosmetically altered version of May's deal, most likely with a NI only backstop.

    Has it occurred to you that the leave side are being used by people who benefit from Brexit?

    Or, you know, perhaps they're people doing their job and voting in a way that they feel is in the best interests of the country and the constituents they represent.

    Do you think the only people who can see your posts are you and I? you can choose to lie or misrepresent what i've said if you want, and other people can read what both of us have written and judge for themselves who is being the most reasonable, and indeed reasoned.

    I don't think an election will necessarily decide brexit, we could simply end up back where we are with no party having a majority. The election we had in 2017 was supposed to resolve this, and instead created a stalemate. this stalemate was the democratic will of the UK people however. rather than make an election which ought to be about all issues an election focused solely on brexit, and forcing people to choose between a no deal brexit and a Corbyn govt, have a referendum, preferably where the leave option is clearly outlined and the result is legally binding so that there are real consequences to the sort of illegal activity that would have rendered the 2016 one nul and void if it had been binding.

    what's the problem with having another vote, if you are convinced that brexit is really what the majority want?
     
  13. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    If you don't want a Corbyn govt you can vote for the Lib Dems, they are bound to capitalise on the Labour u-turn. We are where we are, an election is inevitable now, another extension is pointless, it is the uncertainty that is doing most damage to your economy at this stage. Britain has always had a resilient pro-business economy and will come out the other end of this in better shape than Europe. Look at the state of the main EU countries, their tax burdens and dependency ratios. The world won't end after Halloween.
    Politicians from leave constituencies who are doing everything possible to stop brexit are hardly representing their electorate very well.
    I don't know where you get the idea that I lie or misrepresent. Just because you disagree with me does not mean that.
     
  14. Kieran97

    Kieran97 Well-Known Member

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    How do you make the conclusion that the UK will be in better shape than the EU countries?

    There's a professor Campbell Harvey at Duke university. He's a professor of finance. He's predicted the last three recessions a year in advance. He says of the US and the UK "we're in code red"

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortun...ld-curve-market-great-what-is-economy-us/amp/
     
  15. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    Loads of reasons,
    1. The weaker sterling is actually helping the UK with their exports and making home produced goods and services cheaper. They were right not to join the euro as they have control over their own fiscal and monetary policy.
    2. They have the City of London, they are the real people pushing for Brexit, to avoid further punitive regulation from Brussels, look up the Panama Papers issue.
    3. Their lower tax band is 20% up to £50k, here it is €35k, making the top rate of tax 48.5% between that and €70k, 52% thereafter, the other EU countries have similar high taxes. The UK worker and business people have money in their pockets to save and reinvest. I have friends who left Ireland to work there and their outlook is more optimistic that they can achieve a comfortable standard of living. Unfortunately for us the chances of them ever coming back here are slim.
    4. UK unemployment is low, the average age people join the workforce is lower and their incomes are rising, the rest of the EU is totally opposite. Real incomes haven't budged in 10 years, the EU never really recovered from the last recession. They just kicked the can down the road, that's their answer to everything.
    5. The EU is mired in debt, both public and private, have older populations and now have negative interest rates meaning there is no incentive for saving, if you have high debt repayments and low savings rates there will be nothing to invest with in the future. The result is a stagnant economy.
    6. Apart from the Brexit issue, the UK is a more cohesive country than most other EU countries. Look at Italy, France and Germany, they are tearing themselves apart.
    7. Germany is already in technical recession, having had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so they are already in worse shape.
    8. The UK speak English, they are well placed to benefit from any deal with the US.
     
  16. BasilSeal

    BasilSeal Well-Known Member

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    I've explained the issue with organic milk before, if you couldn't be bothered to read it then it seems pointless to repeat it now, as for medicine, well some medicines are only produced in the EU, but that's not the point, it's about how complex JiT supply chains work

    which areas of the UK do you think are overpopulated? how do you define overpopulation? how many people is too many?

    In what way is it the EU's fault that our own govt has failed to adequately fund our health service? and how do you think that things will improve after a no deal brexit once we've given US pharmaceutical companies unfettered access to the NHS?

    So just to clarify, you can't name any of the EU laws that you are objecting to, is that correct?

    Seriously? it sounds like we need a deal where we get to veto any EU laws we don't like then.
     
  17. BasilSeal

    BasilSeal Well-Known Member

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    and the UK isn't?
     
  18. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    I said apart from the Brexit issue, these things will pass.
     
  19. Mf240

    Mf240 Well-Known Member

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    You know I'd love to able to add something intelligent or interesting to this whole brexit debate, but the best synopsis I can come up to describe the whole brexit process so far, is that they have their shite.
     
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  20. bagenal

    bagenal Well-Known Member

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    They seem to be talking a lot of it anyway.
     
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  21. Kieran97

    Kieran97 Well-Known Member

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    Some good points there but some I don't agree with.

    1. Fair statement on fiscal policy. If your debt is held by outside holders though, it means you have more debt iykwim.

    2. Yes, London is a big financial player. However, look at all the organisations leaving. Barclay's moved to Ireland. So did Somerset capital, Jacob Rees mogg's company.

    3. Fair point. Higher tax in many Scandinavian countries but the standard of living is higher so it's apples and oranges.

    4. Average wages in Britain are 3 pounds a week lower than they were in 2008 relative go the cost of living. The recovery from the last crash has been Britain's slowest economic recovery in 150 years apparently or so I read. Low unemployment is good, but it means you've topped out your recovery. France has similar GDP, but higher unemployment. They have more room to Manoeuvre to increase GDP. Hard to see Britain getting unemployment any lower, they're at the top Of The hill. Only way from here is down.

    5. Germany, France, Italy, Ireland, Sweden etc have lower debt to GDP than Britain. Britain haven't balanced the books since 2006 or 2007. Ireland have turned a surplus the last few years, Britain has just drove up their debt. Greece and Spain aren't in great positions but I don't feel their indicative Of The EU as a whole. Look at the cost of third level education in the UK. Students leaving college with 50-60k debt. 9300 sterling a year fees compared to 3000 in Ireland. Investing in the education of your youth is important.

    6. A few Quotes I heard while in England last summer. "Scotland had a referendum to leave, why can't we have a referendum on whether or not we want to keep them."
    "why can't we give northern Ireland back to you (Ireland)"

    The United kingdom doesn't sound all that United to me. Germany is a relatively new country in it's current form. The union of east and west seems to have been seamless.

    Somebody here said if a union of nations (the UK) decides a union of nations is a bad thing (EU) it doesn't auger well for a union of nations.

    7. Germany is slowing down but there are more countries in the eu than Germany. I'd be a lot more confident of their ability to deal with a recession than the crowd in Westminster.

    8.How long will it take them to negotiate a deal? The Japan-EU trade deal took 6 years. Even when it does happen, it will have to be on America's terms. Might is right, and as @Mf240 said, Britain will have their shite.
     
  22. recycled

    recycled Moderator

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  23. Mike

    Mike Member

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  24. recycled

    recycled Moderator

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    it looks like some one been asked to right out a list of worst case scenarios so that they got something to work on , prepare for the worst hope for the best , its basically a risk assessment , fair enough i would have said , you would expect them to have some one drawing up a list like that . as for the private messages , that would come somewhere between breaching human rights , and data protection ,
     
  25. BasilSeal

    BasilSeal Well-Known Member

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    I thought brexiteers would have no truck with that namby pamby human rights stuff,. they'll be appealing to the European court of human rights next.
     

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