Daily weather forecast update

@muckymanor
What would be the best model to took at or could you give an idea what tomorrow is going to do.
Weather on the phone says dry met says dry but when. You look at there map there's showers falling around here.
 
@muckymanor
What would be the best model to took at or could you give an idea what tomorrow is going to do.
Weather on the phone says dry met says dry but when. You look at there map there's showers falling around here.

I can't tell you with 100% certainty what tomorrow will do. Here is the ECMWF chart that met eireann will be reading off.

ECMOPEU00_24_1.png


And here is a precipitation chart for tomorrow which looks like most of the country being dry in the early part of the day - especially the southern part. That's not to say that there could be a rogue shower, but in general, tomorrow should be pretty dry nationwide (with the exception of the north west coastal areas as per the chart below). But later in the afternoon or evening there is increased cloud and this could lead to more widespread showers. (see the second chart below.) Chart 1 is 6am and chart 2 is 6pm.

GFSOPEU06_24_4.png


GFSOPEU06_36_4.png
 
Sunday looks like a hell of a day. That dark blue is 10mm to 15mm per hour. I hope it passes south of us and that you guys who need and want it, get the most of it.

GFSOPEU06_120_4.png
 
Going like last year now isn’t it, waiting for this weather to clear.. :scratchhead:
At least the straw is baled, it felt a bit odd a few weeks ago drawing bales of straw out of the same fields I drew them out of 5 months previous....
lots of silage to be done in the locality, nearly everyone has some bit to do still.
 
At least the straw is baled, it felt a bit odd a few weeks ago drawing bales of straw out of the same fields I drew them out of 5 months previous....
lots of silage to be done in the locality, nearly everyone has some bit to do still.

Ya abit mad, the whole year really!!
Ya a lot to be done lad, got a week only we’d get threw a lot of it
 
Sunday looks like a hell of a day. That dark blue is 10mm to 15mm per hour. I hope it passes south of us and that you guys who need and want it, get the most of it.

GFSOPEU06_120_4.png

As long as we wouldnt get that clearly defined circle which Looks like Storm Helene to me.
 
Helene is coming next Tuesday. Its too soon to say if it will pass over us or if it will pass further south of us.

Yep Monday/Tuesday look like a washout at this stage. It is only one model run, it will become clearer in the next day or so.

The Ploughing next week could be great fun yet :undecided::cry:
 
This is how ECMWF see Helene playing out. She is going to run very much to the south. But if you look at the isobars in the chart and understand that they represent a cyclone which is spinning anti-clockwise. Those isobars reach very high to the rain which is showing on the chart to the west and north west of Ireland. They will pull this rain down anti-clockwise and throw it back on us from the south, south west and west. They could bring quite a bit of moisture with them.

ECMOPEU00_120_1.png


And by wednesday, the remnants of Helene come right over us and dump more and more rain upon us.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png


GFS gives a more worrying scenario where Helene hits us bang on the south west on monday night bringing wind and rain for probably the whole country.

GFSOPEU06_120_1.png


And wednesday from GFS doesn't look pretty either

GFSOPEU06_144_1.png


The caveat is that it's still 5 days away. You would need to be psychic to predict its path and intensity. There are loads of newspapers publishing warnings about the hurricane already based on very longshot stuff. Met Eireann will have a reliable handle on this by saturday night.

If any of ye want to follow the charts as they unfold, you can find them on www.wetterzentrale.de
 
Tonights update on ecmwf and gfs both show Helene passing much further south than previously thought. Hopefully it will continue that way. Still looks like low pressure will cross the country next week bring a good bit of rain, but not near as much as we would get if Helene was to pass over us.

It looks to me that it will just be a south and south west event with the midlands and north escaping.

The model changed a lot tonight so could change again..
 
It looks to me that it will just be a south and south west event with the midlands and north escaping.

The model changed a lot tonight so could change again..
Its a hard call just yet. Tomorrow and Sunday will give a clearer picture of its path.
 
Its a hard call just yet. Tomorrow and Sunday will give a clearer picture of its path.
I see Carlow weather on FB who is usually pretty good has now said the storm has switched back to the south and east, XC weather has also moved to it. I’d be concerned about very strong wind as maize is almost fit to harvest down here and it’s very vulnerable at this stage.
 
I see Carlow weather on FB who is usually pretty good has now said the storm has switched back to the south and east, XC weather has also moved to it. I’d be concerned about very strong wind as maize is almost fit to harvest down here and it’s very vulnerable at this stage.
The lads in England tell me its falling over nearly from looking at it due to how dry it got
 
I see Carlow weather on FB who is usually pretty good has now said the storm has switched back to the south and east, XC weather has also moved to it. I’d be concerned about very strong wind as maize is almost fit to harvest down here and it’s very vulnerable at this stage.

Pretty bang on for the south and south east now.

You are not the only one worried about maize, lots harvesting This evening.
 
Back
Top