Grain prices

Discussion in 'Tillage' started by gone, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    The US wheat market broke through the $7 a bushel barrier on Friday afternoon trading and continued that trend in early trading this morning.
    This will push our price above €200/ton dry and with this Maize that everyone is going to feed being very slow to show up it is also putting upward pressure on Barley prices.
    Except for wheat this is a short term crisis, which will be alleviated when the harvest in the states is brought in, (IF and only IF it is all got in).
    Wheat is a different story, Europe was gone through its 3rd harvest with ZERO closing stock, (Ireland and the UK carried over some poor quality grain from last year because it couldn't find a home, but it was all displaced by imports and has all been sold now).
    The last western state to have any emergency carryover stock, (USA), has seen its end of year stocks fall drastically this year from an already very low base. The western world now has closing stocks of wheat that are less than 1 weeks supply and the EU has less than 1 Day.
    The wheat market has to explode sometime in the next year or two and I predict wheat prices to go over €350 within the next 2 years.
     
  2. guest

    guest Banned

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    Will the drought in Australia have an effect as well , they have had only 30% of normal rainfall so I cant see big yields there either.
     
  3. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    ment to do some maize for Nov 14 but didnt, Mar 15 is still appealing

    Im not bullish about the maize wheat market so im not too worried(how wrong I have being in the past should worry me). Spot native barley @ €175-€180 is appealing - can it be bought at this price
     
  4. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    Yes and Argentina has reduced its output forecast from 12MMT to 8.8MMT, Brazil is now the 2nd biggest importer of US wheat and China had a disastrous harvest and they are paying their farmers a sub of over €100/ton to grow wheat.
     
  5. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    Wheat is over €200 now and this Maize is just not showing up so anyone selling barley at anything close to those prices at the moment is out of touch.
     
  6. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    maize better show up soon or there will be skin and hair flying, what can barley be bought off farm at the minute for so? havnt bought a load of barley since July, as currently using wheat
     
  7. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    A bit out of touch with barley prices, I have all sold some forward and some at a premium over spring barley.
    If I had barley to sell I would not be moving it at any less than €190 at the moment, the Maize could be 3/4 weeks still.
     
  8. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    Got a price on barley for the sake of it this afternoon, seeing as I sold the last of my wheat, and the barley price shocked me.
    The very very low €180's and well over €20 off wheat price, it has to be good value at that.
     
  9. diesel power

    diesel power Well-Known Member

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    Jeez, I'm glad I decided to be thick about it and keep all my barley. I did sorta regret it at the time but it's money in the bank now or it would be if I wasn't feeding it all to the cattle.
     
  10. humungus

    humungus Well-Known Member

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    heard a local feed rep offer a customer rolled barley at 185 if he took an arctic load , thats 2 weeks ago mind so it may have gone up since
     
  11. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    thats close on the price I was told it was, may dip my toe in the water for a bit of spot next week. EU grains are overvalued IMV
     
  12. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    Wheat may be overvalued for the medium term, but barley is very good value at that and both are going to be worth more in the spring.
    Wheat stocks are ludicrously low and the world just can't continue to use more than we produce, it just doesn't work in the long term.
    There probably will be a dip in prices for a short term when this US Maize really starts to land and that should provide a very good value buying opportunity. If all this Maize lands in one fell swoop I could see wheat dropping by €10/15 on the Irish market and barley by €5.
     
  13. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    yip, should have said in the medium. Im waiting for someone to come back to me regarding when new crop maize is available ex port. I would like to see importers books to see how many tons of maize they are landing in November, as it would tell allot.
     
  14. Mf240

    Mf240 Well-Known Member

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    What are ye lads paying for distillers?
     
  15. Bog Man

    Bog Man Well-Known Member

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  16. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    What news will the USDA report tomorrow bring?
    Up or Down?
     
  17. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    bigger than expected maize harvest I would think, thats a given nearly isnt it?

    Any reason why wheat is trading at such a premium to barley and even maize, considering all wheat in ireland is feed. Does the pig and poultry industry take that much native wheat?
     
  18. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    Even with nobody using wheat other than where needed, there still is not enough wheat in the country and imported wheat will be dearer again.
    It is mad when the gap is over €20, as it was last time I asked.
     
  19. 6600

    6600 Well-Known Member

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    Pity we don't get a €20 premium when selling it..
     
  20. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

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    If you were selling now you would, and in fairness this gap is really only after opening up in the last 4/6 weeks.
     
  21. diesel power

    diesel power Well-Known Member

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    Priced up whole barely from Glanbia the other day and they want 200 a ton. If what ye say about a shortage of wheat is true then it's upwards I think all the prices will go.
     
  22. nashmach

    nashmach Well-Known Member

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    Whole barley or rolled barley??

    Has to be a bigger maize harvest really following the awful weather conditions but bigger than normal??? I'd be erring on the side of yes...
     
  23. diesel power

    diesel power Well-Known Member

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    Whole barley Nash, in other words roll it myself.
     
  24. nashmach

    nashmach Well-Known Member

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    That is what I thought and I was questioning it as it sounds dear, a few weeks back rolled was that.
     
  25. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

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    traders just want out of Barley, last price I had for wheat last week and it was €35 over barley I think, Wrote it in the dust of the tractor dash :whistle: must check it as I didnt buy it
     

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