Warning: these figures are largely based on my estimates of straw yields.
I have had a glimpse of the BPS planted areas for harvest 2020, these figures may get some slight adjustments in time.
The following figures are based on my assumptions below for straw yields, they might be too high, or they might be too low, I just took a stab at average bale yields nationally for 2019 & 2020. I have not taken into account the carryover of straw from 2019.
Straw yields in parts of the south look like they will be normal whereas yields in other parts of the country look like they will be well back.
Assumed bale yields (round 4 x 4 equivalents per acre).
- Winter barley 2019 - 12
- Winter barley 2020 - 10
- Spring barley 2019 - 9.5
- Spring barley 2020 - 7
- Winter Wheat 2019 - 12
- Winter Wheat 2020 - 11
- Spring Wheat 2019 - 9
- Spring Wheat 2020 - 8
- Winter Oats 2019 - 13
- Winter Oats 2020 - 11
- Spring Oats 2019 - 12
- Spring Oats 2020 - 10
Based on the sown areas,
not allowing for carryover, there would be a 20% reduction in the production of barley straw, a 35% reduction in the production of wheaten straw & a 13% reduction in the production of oaten straw. Or, a total reduction of the equivalent of 2728659 round bales.