Grain prices

Nothing but downward pressure for the last month.

I was talking to someone this week who has barley on hand that they bought for a number beginning with 3
 
Irish bean protein not even on the list? Am I right in reading that? Maybe I'm being pessimistic or my mind is misinformed here, but I'm feeling like irish merchant's, (not all) don't actually want irish tillage. That they would rather just buy the feed off the boat so they don't take the risk in purchasing at high prices at harvest(when they occasionally come.
 
Irish bean protein not even on the list? Am I right in reading that? Maybe I'm being pessimistic or my mind is misinformed here, but I'm feeling like irish merchant's, (not all) don't actually want irish tillage. That they would rather just buy the feed off the boat so they don't take the risk in purchasing at high prices at harvest(when they occasionally come.
Its a sad reflection on things when everything else is promoted as cheaper or better. Than barley.
Having just finished feeding my 52 kph barley that no merchant would take after harvest and now feeding a compound nut i can honestly say that i see no differ to when we were feeding the barley / gluten home mix ....
Except for the price of course !! The home brew was going into the manger costing 27 cent kilo valueing the barley at 200 ton ...
The nuts are costing 340 a kilo and thats supposed to be a cash price .
Only upside is i have my lungs back the rolling combined with the fags had me sounding like as my wife put it " like and old banger starting up "
Thats because i am an old banger was my reply ...
The merchants are not in a comfortable place either buying grain to trade is not for the faint hearted and considerable sums of money could be lost if the price goes south .
The mills are ruthless and will discount at any opportunity .
And the wiil certainly use imports to force prices down ...
All and all not a lot of cheer for grain growers in the journal .
Between direct payments been trimmed hard , collapsing grain prices, and margins looking paper thin and thats before even a spring seed is in the ground.
Its nearly enough to make a chap root out a beret and a box of gitanes and turn positively French to get some satisfaction !!
 
Its a sad reflection on things when everything else is promoted as cheaper or better. Than barley.
Having just finished feeding my 52 kph barley that no merchant would take after harvest and now feeding a compound nut i can honestly say that i see no differ to when we were feeding the barley / gluten home mix ....
Except for the price of course !! The home brew was going into the manger costing 27 cent kilo valueing the barley at 200 ton ...
The nuts are costing 340 a kilo and thats supposed to be a cash price .
Only upside is i have my lungs back the rolling combined with the fags had me sounding like as my wife put it " like and old banger starting up "
Thats because i am an old banger was my reply ...
The merchants are not in a comfortable place either buying grain to trade is not for the faint hearted and considerable sums of money could be lost if the price goes south .
The mills are ruthless and will discount at any opportunity .
And the wiil certainly use imports to force prices down ...
All and all not a lot of cheer for grain growers in the journal .
Between direct payments been trimmed hard , collapsing grain prices, and margins looking paper thin and thats before even a spring seed is in the ground.
Its nearly enough to make a chap root out a beret and a box of gitanes and turn positively French to get some satisfaction !!
Well put!
We're in a bit of a spot here alright. I've fed and rolled pea/barley mix with a few traces before and it is savage value.
It's very hard to strategise for the show at the moment. Hard enough force a margin out of it last year but maize out to November prices are killing any price positivity.
 
I listened to 2 economists discussing the distortion of the EU agri economy yesterday.
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain exporters etc etc. The likes of BASF, Cargill, Nestle, Danone, and down to the smallest supplier, are pocketing fine profits indeed…off the back of farmers that finance, take 100% of the weather and market risk etc etc. Nice work, if you can get it.

I challenge everyone here to look to their suppliers, processors, etc, no matter how small, and ask yourselves when was the last time they didn’t turn a profit.
I can’t think of one single example.
 
I listened to 2 economists discussing the distortion of the EU agri economy yesterday.
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain exporters etc etc. The likes of BASF, Cargill, Nestle, Danone, and down to the smallest supplier, are pocketing fine profits indeed…off the back of farmers that finance, take 100% of the weather and market risk etc etc. Nice work, if you can get it.

I challenge everyone here to look to their suppliers, processors, etc, no matter how small, and ask yourselves when was the last time they didn’t turn a profit.
I can’t think of one single example.
 
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain
Good post, SHEEBA. Is it possible for you to get a link to the report, or let me know where it might be located?
 
I listened to 2 economists discussing the distortion of the EU agri economy yesterday.
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain exporters etc etc. The likes of BASF, Cargill, Nestle, Danone, and down to the smallest supplier, are pocketing fine profits indeed…off the back of farmers that finance, take 100% of the weather and market risk etc etc. Nice work, if you can get it.

I challenge everyone here to look to their suppliers, processors, etc, no matter how small, and ask yourselves when was the last time they didn’t turn a profit.
I can’t think of one single example.
A merchant and I were talking about general inflation a few months ago, and he said he was after buying a new lorry that was gone up €20,000 since his last lorry 18 months ago. He asked the question - who was going to be paying for it?
 
I listened to 2 economists discussing the distortion of the EU agri economy yesterday.
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain exporters etc etc. The likes of BASF, Cargill, Nestle, Danone, and down to the smallest supplier, are pocketing fine profits indeed…off the back of farmers that finance, take 100% of the weather and market risk etc etc. Nice work, if you can get it.

I challenge everyone here to look to their suppliers, processors, etc, no matter how small, and ask yourselves when was the last time they didn’t turn a profit.
I can’t think of one single example.
I was at a teagasc meeting last year where they were running through the profit monitor and the break evens for the coming year. My local merchant said jokingly at the end to a grower, he forgot the small print at the bottom that I am guaranteed my 40% margin!
 
I listened to 2 economists discussing the distortion of the EU agri economy yesterday.
They had a 5yr study done on the effects of the sfp on rural économies, and where the money actually ends up. In the large part of the most productive farms, ie Northern Europe, over 90% of the sfp goes to the suppliers, processors, grain exporters etc etc. The likes of BASF, Cargill, Nestle, Danone, and down to the smallest supplier, are pocketing fine profits indeed…off the back of farmers that finance, take 100% of the weather and market risk etc etc. Nice work, if you can get it.

I challenge everyone here to look to their suppliers, processors, etc, no matter how small, and ask yourselves when was the last time they didn’t turn a profit.
I can’t think of one single example.
Some of the more cynical amongst us might have always considered the CAP to be a way of transferring public funds to the periphery in order for it to bounce back to the centre. But maybe that's just the way its evolved. My current thinking is its being used to herd us all into greener times, but I think its a blunt way for Europe to get this on the cheap. Hence the vilification of agriculture.
 
Some of the more cynical amongst us might have always considered the CAP to be a way of transferring public funds to the periphery in order for it to bounce back to the centre. But maybe that's just the way its evolved. My current thinking is its being used to herd us all into greener times, but I think its a blunt way for Europe to get this on the cheap. Hence the vilification of agriculture.
Europe don’t actually know where they’re at. It’ll take €200/t to produce grade2 milling wheat at todays CoP and without a significant geopolitical event, prices won’t come within an asses roar of that. Add in the extra 4% that will be produced from the proposed abolition of setaside, and you’d have to wonder what their line of thought is. Also, it’s illegal for me to let land idle, bar setaside, who does that serve? I’m being forced to produce to keep the merry-go-round spinning away, but for whom?
We are being forced to produce under some of the strictest enviro/phyto regulations in the world, whilst allowing produce into the EU without any regs whatsoever, who does that serve?
It seems that on the poorer land in Southern Europe a large % of the sfp actually stays in the local community, so focus the money towards them, and allow the farmers on better land to farm on a level playing field.
‘Socialism for farmers, capitalism for industry’ is where Europe is right now.
 
Europe don’t actually know where they’re at. It’ll take €200/t to produce grade2 milling wheat at todays CoP and without a significant geopolitical event, prices won’t come within an asses roar of that. Add in the extra 4% that will be produced from the proposed abolition of setaside, and you’d have to wonder what their line of thought is. Also, it’s illegal for me to let land idle, bar setaside, who does that serve? I’m being forced to produce to keep the merry-go-round spinning away, but for whom?
We are being forced to produce under some of the strictest enviro/phyto regulations in the world, whilst allowing produce into the EU without any regs whatsoever, who does that serve?
It seems that on the poorer land in Southern Europe a large % of the sfp actually stays in the local community, so focus the money towards them, and allow the farmers on better land to farm on a level playing field.
‘Socialism for farmers, capitalism for industry’ is where Europe is right now.
I can't believe that you are prohibited from fallow. That's nuts. The last weapon available in a loss year is not to produce. The "southern" Europe argument is one that could be extended to parts of Ireland too, where I believe stock farming should be supported to maintain rural communities, but still it doesn't seem to be helping with rural depopulation.
I think Europe know exactly what they are at. The CAP is a big lever that they can pull for the green agenda, because the European crop economy has become largely dependent on it. The other side of the vice is from economics 101, where what you subsidise gets absorbed in prices. Witness the incredible input price rises.
None of this theorising helps though, with the firm prospect of a loss making year, how do we respond? The crop area here will decline again for sure. Maybe some short term ley and sell the grass? Or cover crop some of it and let for grazing? Decisions will have to be made in next few weeks.
incidentally, talking to a few reps this week, and the seed panic seems to be abating, apart from the price.
 
What are the options for fallow in a year like this? We are in anc area and no livestock so can’t go grass but have one bit and cheapest cover would be a good option
 
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