Grain prices

gone

Well-Known Member
Nothing particularly new or unknown in that article, apart from the wild assumptions that wheat usage has dropped massively, I have seen no basis for this claim anywhere else, they say wheat has stopped in ethanol production but that was mainly maize, they say animals are no longer being fed because they can't be killed, that is a wild jump.
As for the 5 months of stocks 40% of that is China, 20% is in India and none of that is available, another nearly 15% in Russian influenced countries and it was a ban on exports of this that had traders worried. The supply and demand are reasonably evenly matched on the wheat side and if you make a wild assumption and predict 0.5% reduction in global wheat crop yields because of weather events in Europe there will be deficit of wheat this year. I am not predicting the above just using their wild assumptions and mad predictions to show the opposite result.
Maize and course grains, (Feed Barley) look way more depressing.
 

gone

Well-Known Member
US wheat after taking a big tumble this afternoon, at it's lowest price since last September.
Not good, down $37/ton from high in late Jan.
 

nashmach

Well-Known Member
US wheat after taking a big tumble this afternoon, at it's lowest price since last September.
Not good, down $37/ton from high in late Jan.

What's driving it gone? Are the yields from the harvest in the US better than expected?

To be fair to you, you had warned here ages ago that the price differential was not sustainable.
 

gone

Well-Known Member
What's driving it gone? Are the yields from the harvest in the US better than expected?

To be fair to you, you had warned here ages ago that the price differential was not sustainable.
It happened in the last part of the days trading, so I'm not sure, I don't pay enough to get up to date info.
Yields must be good, but my guess would be Trump's trade wars are catching up on US export, he has destroyed US mid west agriculture.
 

Ozzy Scott

Well-Known Member
Corn looks very advanced going by Twitter, but those lads are ace at planting at the wrong time even in good conditions. US also losing its influence/importance in producing grain. I see Russia talking about getting 5 more million acres back into grain production in next 5 years. Brazil increasing year on year and the black sea would be found lacking in production. Any year over €150 green, is going to be remembered for the foreseeable future
 

Cork

Well-Known Member
Your pessimism is contagious.
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It spread from cattle prices in to grain.
I’ve given up worrying that age old sectors are finished
Corn looks very advanced going by Twitter, but those lads are ace at planting at the wrong time even in good conditions. US also losing its influence/importance in producing grain. I see Russia talking about getting 5 more million acres back into grain production in next 5 years. Brazil increasing year on year and the black sea would be found lacking in production. Any year over €150 green, is going to be remembered for the foreseeable future

I gave up worrying about things that may or may not happen.
Any time the price of grain went up, nobody saw it coming and likewise when people predict it to go up it never does.

Stick with your main business if you enjoy it and are good at it. There’s nothing easy in this world but the better operator generally stays the course.
 

rustymcsocks

Well-Known Member
I gave up worrying about things that may or may not happen.
Any time the price of grain went up, nobody saw it coming and likewise when people predict it to go up it never does.

Stick with your main business if you enjoy it and are good at it. There’s nothing easy in this world but the better operator generally stays the course.

Couldn't have put it any better.
 

gone

Well-Known Member
I’ve given up worrying that age old sectors are finished


I gave up worrying about things that may or may not happen.
Any time the price of grain went up, nobody saw it coming and likewise when people predict it to go up it never does.

Stick with your main business if you enjoy it and are good at it. There’s nothing easy in this world but the better operator generally stays the course.
In a way I do agree with you, but as part of the selling team for a tonnage of the group's green grain I have to keep a good handle on grain prices and the trends. Also I have long given up buying inputs and asking the seller to do the best they can for me and long given up supplying them grain and asking them to again do the best they can for me.
 

Ozzy Scott

Well-Known Member
Your pessimism is contagious.
;
;
;
;
;
;
;
It spread from cattle prices in to grain.

Do you consider €150 green barley been considered a good grain price, well off the mark for the foreseeable future? Hard to see much change unless someone strokes a pen on the tariff side.

I assume most merchants have Maize at €155 done for the next 36 months.
 

gone

Well-Known Member
Do you consider €150 green barley been considered a good grain price, well off the mark for the foreseeable future? Hard to see much change unless someone strokes a pen on the tariff side.

I assume most merchants have Maize at €155 done for the next 36 months.
Unfortunately I don't disagree with your outlook, but couldn't miss the opportunity to give you a bit of stick. :Whistle2:
I don't follow what Maize is ex port here, but it is way above €155 in Paris for many many months, is it available here at €155?
 
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Ozzy Scott

Well-Known Member
Unfortunately I don't disagree with your outlook, but couldn't miss the opportunity to give you a bit of stick. :Whistle2:
I don't follow what Maize is ex port here, but it is way above €155 in Paris for many many months, is it available here at €155?
The last time I worked it out I think that was the minimum figure maize could be sold into Ireland at, given taxes and tariffs irrespective how low maize price went. Currently US is at $3.50 a bushel which is close to lowest price, that would be circa €100 a ton off farm in US, they are worryingly happy to produce at this price.

I dont follow grain price anymore, as no long forward buy as my usage has dropped like a stone. I also nowadays refuse to buy imported inferior product. You cant afford to feed a beef animal in Ireland with grain when beef is under €4 a kilo.
 

gone

Well-Known Member
The last time I worked it out I think that was the minimum figure maize could be sold into Ireland at, given taxes and tariffs irrespective how low maize price went. Currently US is at $3.50 a bushel which is close to lowest price, that would be circa €100 a ton off farm in US, they are worryingly happy to produce at this price.

I dont follow grain price anymore, as no long forward buy as my usage has dropped like a stone. I also nowadays refuse to buy imported inferior product. You cant afford to feed a beef animal in Ireland with grain when beef is under €4 a kilo.
The EU has increased the tariffs a few times in the last 2 years in retaliation for Trump tariffs on EU products. Trump seems hell bent in trying to destroy agriculture in the states that vote for. That is protecting grain prices in the EU. US farmers have very few countries that they are now able to export to tariff free.
 

Ozzy Scott

Well-Known Member
The EU has increased the tariffs a few times in the last 2 years in retaliation for Trump tariffs on EU products. Trump seems hell bent in trying to destroy agriculture in the states that vote for. That is protecting grain prices in the EU. US farmers have very few countries that they are now able to export to tariff free.

As I have said a number of times, a stroke of a pen could add €10 a ton onto the value of every ton produced by farmers in Ireland. Gamechanger.
Farmers could then pay more for conacre:Thumbp2::smile:
 

diesel power

Well-Known Member
Welcome along @Patrol .
The problem is people expect to be fed as cheaply as possible while driving a 90k car and jetting off on holiday. If substandard grains are banned it would remove a substantial amount of poor quality, cheap and readily available grain and I think it would increase the price. If nothing else it would level up the playing field and give Europe's farmers some chance to compete.
 

Patrol

Member
Yes agree about cheap food. Will be interesting to see how the Importation of chlorinated chicken/hormone beef turns out in the trade talks and with the consumer. Could it highlight different food additives/inputs and possibly lead to a 2 tier system of quality and pricing of food which would benefit native grain ?
 

Iggy

Well-Known Member
Hello all, first time posting here so apologies if this is in the wrong thread. Will this level the playing field a bit ?
Check this out on Agriland - Commissioner: ‘I don’t think we can allow’ imports made with banned pesticides
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-new...an-allow-imports-made-with-banned-pesticides/

I read that article and it's good to see such an important issue is being discussed at a high level cause farmers have been shouting this for ages. It's not just banned chemicals but also crops grown in areas of deforestation.
 

nashmach

Well-Known Member
Welcome along Patrol.

Unfortunately I think it will be easy for this commissioner to come out with such soundbites.

He does not seem to have much influence in the commission at present and his performance to date is not great especially compared to the previous commissioner Hogan.
 
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