Grain prices

Discussion in 'Tillage' started by gone, Oct 21, 2013.

  1. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    Nothing particularly new or unknown in that article, apart from the wild assumptions that wheat usage has dropped massively, I have seen no basis for this claim anywhere else, they say wheat has stopped in ethanol production but that was mainly maize, they say animals are no longer being fed because they can't be killed, that is a wild jump.
    As for the 5 months of stocks 40% of that is China, 20% is in India and none of that is available, another nearly 15% in Russian influenced countries and it was a ban on exports of this that had traders worried. The supply and demand are reasonably evenly matched on the wheat side and if you make a wild assumption and predict 0.5% reduction in global wheat crop yields because of weather events in Europe there will be deficit of wheat this year. I am not predicting the above just using their wild assumptions and mad predictions to show the opposite result.
    Maize and course grains, (Feed Barley) look way more depressing.
     
  2. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    The €25 premium for wheat over barley seems to be shrinking by the day, it always tends to as feeders who can just switch
     
    nashmach and CORK like this.
  3. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    nashmach, Iggy, dmaxman and 2 others like this.
  4. Iggy

    Iggy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2014
    Messages:
    665
    Location:
    Ballybrittas Laois
    I think it's going to put an end to a lot of con acre.
     
    gone likes this.
  5. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    US wheat after taking a big tumble this afternoon, at it's lowest price since last September.
    Not good, down $37/ton from high in late Jan.
     
  6. nashmach

    nashmach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2010
    Messages:
    43,736
    Location:
    Wexford, Ireland
    What's driving it gone? Are the yields from the harvest in the US better than expected?

    To be fair to you, you had warned here ages ago that the price differential was not sustainable.
     
  7. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    It happened in the last part of the days trading, so I'm not sure, I don't pay enough to get up to date info.
    Yields must be good, but my guess would be Trump's trade wars are catching up on US export, he has destroyed US mid west agriculture.
     
    nashmach likes this.
  8. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    USDA report yesterday cut the area of maize planted and this lead to a much improved grain market. French wheat up about €5 from a low base, but at least it is positive again.
     
    Iggy, Barrowsider, Ags11 and 6 others like this.
  9. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2010
    Messages:
    7,970
    Corn looks very advanced going by Twitter, but those lads are ace at planting at the wrong time even in good conditions. US also losing its influence/importance in producing grain. I see Russia talking about getting 5 more million acres back into grain production in next 5 years. Brazil increasing year on year and the black sea would be found lacking in production. Any year over €150 green, is going to be remembered for the foreseeable future
     
  10. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    Your pessimism is contagious.
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    It spread from cattle prices in to grain.
     
  11. CORK

    CORK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,441
    Location:
    East Cork, Ireland
    I’ve given up worrying that age old sectors are finished
    I gave up worrying about things that may or may not happen.
    Any time the price of grain went up, nobody saw it coming and likewise when people predict it to go up it never does.

    Stick with your main business if you enjoy it and are good at it. There’s nothing easy in this world but the better operator generally stays the course.
     
    humungus, CoNaMi, nashmach and 4 others like this.
  12. rustymcsocks

    rustymcsocks Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2017
    Messages:
    300
    Location:
    East Cork
    Couldn't have put it any better.
     
  13. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    In a way I do agree with you, but as part of the selling team for a tonnage of the group's green grain I have to keep a good handle on grain prices and the trends. Also I have long given up buying inputs and asking the seller to do the best they can for me and long given up supplying them grain and asking them to again do the best they can for me.
     
  14. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2010
    Messages:
    7,970
    Do you consider €150 green barley been considered a good grain price, well off the mark for the foreseeable future? Hard to see much change unless someone strokes a pen on the tariff side.

    I assume most merchants have Maize at €155 done for the next 36 months.
     
  15. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    Unfortunately I don't disagree with your outlook, but couldn't miss the opportunity to give you a bit of stick. :Whistle2:
    I don't follow what Maize is ex port here, but it is way above €155 in Paris for many many months, is it available here at €155?
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  16. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2010
    Messages:
    7,970
    The last time I worked it out I think that was the minimum figure maize could be sold into Ireland at, given taxes and tariffs irrespective how low maize price went. Currently US is at $3.50 a bushel which is close to lowest price, that would be circa €100 a ton off farm in US, they are worryingly happy to produce at this price.

    I dont follow grain price anymore, as no long forward buy as my usage has dropped like a stone. I also nowadays refuse to buy imported inferior product. You cant afford to feed a beef animal in Ireland with grain when beef is under €4 a kilo.
     
    Barrowsider and gone like this.
  17. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland
    The EU has increased the tariffs a few times in the last 2 years in retaliation for Trump tariffs on EU products. Trump seems hell bent in trying to destroy agriculture in the states that vote for. That is protecting grain prices in the EU. US farmers have very few countries that they are now able to export to tariff free.
     
  18. Ozzy Scott

    Ozzy Scott Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2010
    Messages:
    7,970
    As I have said a number of times, a stroke of a pen could add €10 a ton onto the value of every ton produced by farmers in Ireland. Gamechanger.
    Farmers could then pay more for conacre:Thumbp2::smile:
     
    Ugo Schtiglitz and gone like this.
  19. Patrol

    Patrol Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2020
    Messages:
    6
    Ugo Schtiglitz and CORK like this.
  20. CORK

    CORK Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2011
    Messages:
    13,441
    Location:
    East Cork, Ireland
  21. diesel power

    diesel power Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 27, 2012
    Messages:
    14,350
    Location:
    Laois
    Welcome along @Patrol .
    The problem is people expect to be fed as cheaply as possible while driving a 90k car and jetting off on holiday. If substandard grains are banned it would remove a substantial amount of poor quality, cheap and readily available grain and I think it would increase the price. If nothing else it would level up the playing field and give Europe's farmers some chance to compete.
     
    nomoneyhere, no name and CORK like this.
  22. Patrol

    Patrol Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2020
    Messages:
    6
    Yes agree about cheap food. Will be interesting to see how the Importation of chlorinated chicken/hormone beef turns out in the trade talks and with the consumer. Could it highlight different food additives/inputs and possibly lead to a 2 tier system of quality and pricing of food which would benefit native grain ?
     
  23. Iggy

    Iggy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2014
    Messages:
    665
    Location:
    Ballybrittas Laois
    I read that article and it's good to see such an important issue is being discussed at a high level cause farmers have been shouting this for ages. It's not just banned chemicals but also crops grown in areas of deforestation.
     
  24. nashmach

    nashmach Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2010
    Messages:
    43,736
    Location:
    Wexford, Ireland
    Welcome along Patrol.

    Unfortunately I think it will be easy for this commissioner to come out with such soundbites.

    He does not seem to have much influence in the commission at present and his performance to date is not great especially compared to the previous commissioner Hogan.
     
    Barrowsider likes this.
  25. gone

    gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2011
    Messages:
    7,669
    Location:
    CW. southeast Ireland

Share This Page