Grain prices

gone said:
I am not selling at the moment so a bit out of touch with local prices, but the little bits that I am hearing would have tallied with the above, before the weekend.
All has changed in the last few days.
Soya, wheat and maize/barley hit new highs for the year 3 weeks ago, then dropped back a nice little bit around the beginning of the month, but the last few days Soya and Rape are on fire with prices at 6 year highs, Maize/Barley have moved up but not by quite as much and Wheat much more stable in it's price.
The Grain markets look very positive at the moment, but what is the reverse of "Caveat Emptor"....................seller don't be too greedy?????????????
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That's about the size of it.
Two years ago a few lads held onto it thinking they were going to make a fortune come the springtime but the arse fell out of it and it was almost harvest time again when their sheds were empty.
 
CORK said:
Quite an optimistic view on grain prices in the Journal.
I can’t remember when I last saw such an outlook.
Hopefully it materialises.
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Cue auctioneers rubbing their hands in glee and more advertisements from them in the Journal....

(I know I'm cynical...)
 
nashmach said:
Cue auctioneers rubbing their hands in glee and more advertisements from them in the Journal....

(I know I'm cynical...)
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Cue a rise in input prices which usually follows high output prices. Unfortunately, the high input prices usually arrive when the output prices are falling from the high.

As a potato grower once said; cheap potato seed - dear potatoes. Dear potato seed - cheap potatoes.....

That said, some inputs like diesel and fertilizer have been what I consider as very good value over the past year.
 
CORK said:
Quite an optimistic view on grain prices in the Journal.
I can’t remember when I last saw such an outlook.
Hopefully it materialises.
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Wow, talk of $6/bushel Maize is optimistic, to say the least, 7 1/2 years since there were prices like that and that was with out the trade wars and tariffs that Trump brought about.
I am not talking down our prices in any way, but forecasting US Maize at $6/bushel is wild and equates to $75/T rise in prices, or a 43% rise ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Everything else seem reasonable till he lost the run of himself.
 
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gone said:
Wow, talk of $6/bushel Maize is optimistic, to say the least, 7 1/2 years since there were prices like that and that was with out the trade wars and tariffs that Trump brought about.
I am not talking down our prices in any way, but forecasting US Maize at $6/bushel is wild and equates to $75 per rise in prices, or a 43% rise ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Everything else seem reasonable till he lost the run of himself.
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$6 dollars :whistle: someone is dreaming, same script said beef up 10 - 15c, havent even risen 5c from anyone i talked too
 
A mixed USDA report today, very large course grain harvest (Maize, barley etc.), 1,447.8 million tons, (from memory record harvest 2 years ago was 1,48x million ton), and a new record wheat harvest @ 774 million tons, Oilseed harvest was smaller than expected, (but that was expected IYKWIM).
China imported way more than expected, (they imported 14% of total exported course grains), closing stocks of all grains will lower than expected and significantly lower than last year.
Markets are taking as they expected for Maize and Soya (No change in price) and a bit more positive than they were expecting for US wheat, (which has regained some, but not near all, of it's losses).
Sold some more Wheat and Oats today, glad to have the Oats moved, but wouldn't have sold the Wheat except the buyer was only doing a package deal, very happy with prices, Fert bought a nice bit cheaper than last season and grain sold at a reasonable price.
 
Deerehunter said:
Just think how much that lorry load could buy back then and how much a load could buy now.
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A local now 59 yr old large contractor told me year ago , that he had spring barley in a rented farm a mile from me in the early 80s . He got £120 a ton for the grain and 60p per square bale . He gathered up most of the price of a new MF 290 out of the one years sales from the crop . That was £ , not €.

Approx 20 years ago an excellent sheep farmer told me that in the late 1970s he bought a new Alexander ( made in Birr Co Offaly at that time) , 8 x 4 ft6 trailer with sheep decks . He paid for it with a packed load of lambs on the same trailer . Lambs made up to £100 at the time .

This year sheep farmers thought they were doing well getting €127 per lamb . The same money , 40 years later .
 
jf 850 said:
A local now 59 yr old large contractor told me year ago , that he had spring barley in a rented farm a mile from me in the early 80s . He got £120 a ton for the grain and 60p per square bale . He gathered up most of the price of a new MF 290 out of the one years sales from the crop . That was £ , not €.

Approx 20 years ago an excellent sheep farmer told me that in the late 1970s he bought a new Alexander ( made in Birr Co Offaly at that time) , 8 x 4 ft6 trailer with sheep decks . He paid for it with a packed load of lambs on the same trailer . Lambs made up to £100 at the time .

This year sheep farmers thought they were doing well getting €127 per lamb . The same money , 40 years later .
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But that isn't accounting for inflation:
 

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IFJ have no mention of the $6 Maize this week, I still wonder was it a misprint.
Futures markets have gone a bit mad the last couple of trading days.
I think volatility in the currency market is feeding into the grain markets.
 
See in Brian's farming videos he said Cargill aren't taking in maize as they are full. Whatever that means
 
Ugo Schtiglitz said:
Are beans and peas here really based off distiller's price? They are a direct replacement in a lot of cases for either.
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Some merchants price them that way, others seem to work off the, how low can I go and still get them, principal.
In my book they should be worth a premium over distillers, high ME, good protein, highly palatable, GMO free, home grown.
That is not the current thinking.
 
CORK said:
news.mongabay.com

As Amazon deforestation hits 12 year high, France rejects Brazilian soy

A day after Brazil announced 11,000 square kilometers of annual deforestation, France, the EU’s biggest buyer of Brazilian soy flour, announced plans to become more self-sufficient on the commodity.
news.mongabay.com news.mongabay.com
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It's a disgrace that the EU up to now has been importing anything from Brazil given their scant regard for the environment while imposing almost punitive regulations on it's own farmers. Perhaps selling Beemers and Mercedes to South America isn't altogether as important as our great and wonderful EU overlords would have us believe and maybe our own twats will yet appreciate their own food producers.
 
Masseyrk662 said:
Can someone explain why China is importing so much Australian grain ? Has it to do with covid?
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I don't know a lot about Australia grain imports/exports, they swing back and forth because of the boom bust cycles of their weather. Even though they are supposed to after entering a free trade agreement with China and others, Australia banned Chinese phone companies from selling, at the behest of Trump and China are now in a "cold" trade war with Australia.
 
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