Grain prices

john415 said:
your right nash 3 ton is optimistic.it is well achievable but in a high input situation.

can anyone give me a price on beans?
is 2.5 ton of benas a better margin than 3 ton of sb
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I was at bean meeting before christmas and they were talking around €220/t and adverage yield of 5t/ha and costs of approx €850/ha so roughly 1.5t/acre to break even
 
john415 said:
your right nash 3 ton is optimistic.it is well achievable but in a high input situation.

can anyone give me a price on beans?
is 2.5 ton of benas a better margin than 3 ton of sb
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Dairygold are offering €215 @ 20%mc for beans.

Someone here compared the margins (using Teagasc figures I guess) and a bean yield of 2.25tn/ac will leave a margin of €100/ac. At a barley price of €140, 3.1 tn/ac would be needed to give the same margin.

I'm only quoting these figures so am leaving myself open if there are any mistakes within!!


I often think that the margin analysis of growing a break crop should perhaps include a value for the extra yield given to the following cereal crop.
 
john415 said:
If grain keeps falling is it even worth sowing land with no Sfp on it.done some rough numbers on SB this morning was offered 30 ac.at 3 ton and 100/ac for the land I'd stand to lose €37/ac for grain at €140/ton I think il leave it in the shed and admire my fendt.


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What way did you do your figues, out of interest? I would have thought €100/ac for 3t of SB @€140/t plus the straw would work out fine. Cost me €351/ac to grow SB last year.
 
The main wheat growing parts of Eastern Europe are not getting much snow at the moment and it's looking like they may be facing a severe water shortage if something does not happen soon. This in turn may limit access to irrigation for the high yielding maize crops.
Could be an interesting year.
 
Tippcon said:
What way did you do your figues, out of interest? I would have thought €100/ac for 3t of SB @€140/t plus the straw would work out fine. Cost me €351/ac to grow SB last year.
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Sorry I'm slow to get back to you was on the phone last night nd didn't have the figures with me.
Land €100 the much debated machinery €144
Nd materials are €213 but that could be off because I took it off the teagasc website.i haven't grown spring barley since my first year growing.
Plus the straw would leave me a small profit but depending on the. Market too.


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john415 said:
Sorry I'm slow to get back to you was on the phone last night nd didn't have the figures with me.
Land €100 the much debated machinery €144
Nd materials are €213 but that could be off because I took it off the teagasc website.i haven't grown spring barley since my first year growing.
Plus the straw would leave me a small profit but depending on the. Market too.


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is there much of this €100ac land about in Wexford? Everything im hearing around here is now €200 at min and up to €300. And this isn't land for grown roots
 
Ozzy Scott said:
is there much of this €100ac land about in Wexford? Everything im hearing around here is now €200 at min and up to €300. And this isn't land for grown roots
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Very rare for that to be honest.lot of land getting €140-€230
Sfp is driving it mad.I don't expect to get any land now till 2016 or after.


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On original topic any view on current green barley prices. Seems like prices are flat around 165/70.
 
Likewise here we have never sold grain forward, have grown rape in the past on contract with a forward price, but never sold barley wheat or oats, im not saying we are right, but its how we do things, the thinking being that those buying grain on the market on average must win, for the future market to be sustainable much like a bookie, some bookies loose but on average they win and the punters on average have to loose, if i thought i was smart enough to beat the market every year i should be a full time grain trader. I often thought if grain was trading below the cost of production we as farmers should be forward buying it?? I was away on a trip to amazone last week and had some very interesting chats with other farmers, my conclusions are that noting can be produced at a loss for 2 years in a row, as primary producers selling on the world market, the single most important for us is to be financially fit enough to deal with a bad year.
 
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In some countries the banks will not finance agriculture unless there are forward sales . The worst case is to have two years low bushel wheat that there is no market for without a heavy discount . I like to have enough sold forward to cover Fertiliser it puts you in a strong bargaining position both for the fertiliser and the grain . The top and the bottom of the market are for fools ..
 
Soya has just touched $14 a bushel, this is going to swing a lot of land towards beans which will in turn reduce the US harvest massively.
 
gone said:
Soya has just touched $14 a bushel, this is going to swing a lot of land towards beans which will in turn reduce the US harvest massively.
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dont underestimate how easy it is for farmers throughout the world to grow very cheap maize. I had the feeling from Xmas onwards we would be climbing. shag all has happened yet. Might be time to take more cover for 15. hard to see a downside in this market, but then again not much of an upside appearing either. A boring year ahead for energy grains ?:thumbdown:
 
There is a big shortage of protein especially soya. With soya at $14 and maize at $4.60 and competing for the same land all the signs are that there should be a big rise in soya planting, which would in turn cause a small grain harvest leading to higher grain prices. Well that my reasoning anyway.
 
Must admit I don't follow the grain markets and Ozzy and gone are the experts on here on the topic.

Do either of you think the horrendous weather in the States and Canada will impact especially the frost and ice or is way too early in the plants life?

Lets face it while the UK floods are an issue, the overall UK harvest will not swing the market on its own.
 
gone said:
There is a big shortage of protein especially soya. With soya at $14 and maize at $4.60 and competing for the same land all the signs are that there should be a big rise in soya planting, which would in turn cause a small grain harvest leading to higher grain prices. Well that my reasoning anyway.
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Its much the same pricewise as last year and plantings of soya didn't sky rocket which you would have assumed they would. IIRC soya was up as high as $16/17 in the backend of 12, and hovered around $14.5 most of last year up to harvest
 
In the US it is more likely that the droughts in the south, south west and mid west will have a bigger influence.
It is an el Nino year so volatility should be the order of the day, or year in this case.
 
nashmach said:
Must admit I don't follow the grain markets and Ozzy and gone are the experts on here on the topic.

Do either of you think the horrendous weather in the States and Canada will impact especially the frost and ice or is way too early in the plants life?

Lets face it while the UK floods are an issue, the overall UK harvest will not swing the market on its own.
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I just keep and eye on it for my own use. real know jack sh$te. If your an end user or grower you can't really make a massive feck up using futures if you know your own costs. Too early yet to be worrying about planting.

what price is offered for Nov 14 feed wheat in Ireland - €195??
 
Ozzy Scott said:
Its much the same pricewise as last year and plantings of soya didn't sky rocket which you would have assumed they would. IIRC soya was up as high as $16/17 in the backend of 12, and hovered around $14.5 most of last year up to harvest
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Yes but Maize was not as low, it is always the relationship between the 2 that decides what is planted.
If Oats is making €20 under Barley I will plant Barley if it is €20 over Barley I will always plant Oats
 
gone said:
Yes but Maize was not as low, it is always the relationship between the 2 that decides what is planted.
If Oats is making €20 under Barley I will plant Barley if it is €20 over Barley I will always plant Oats
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I seem to have forgotten very quickly about all the expensive maize I used in early 13 :whistle:. on the Oats side of things have any being exported and what are the stocks like in store?
 
Ozzy Scott said:
I just keep and eye on it for my own use. real know jack sh$te. If your an end user or grower you can't really make a massive feck up using futures if you know your own costs. Too early yet to be worrying about planting.

what price is offered for Nov 14 feed wheat in Ireland - €195??
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Not really keeping an eye on Irish prices at the moment because I'm not in the market, sold enough earlier at higher prices and will not be entering the market again till it rises over the €210 mark, but it sounds about right for where the world market is at.
 
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